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Wednesday, December 29, 2010
The $85 Smartphone and the imminent extinction of non-smartphones
In a recent article I made the claim:
My bet is that by the end of 2012, it will be hard to find any branded phones which won’t run a smartphone
I also showed how pricing has evolved over the last three years.
Two days later an article in Fortune’s Google24/7 blog highlighted the possible price points of low-end smartphones:
I had a chance to speak with Jim Tran, VP/GM – Handset Line of Business for Broadcom, who was able to elaborate on the details of the new processor and what it meant for the industry. Here are some of Broadcom’s bullet points:
- The BCM2157 baseband, since it combines many functions on one chip, is able to run more efficiently, meaning less battery power will be needed than on current basic handsets
- Low-cost, low-power, 65 nm digital CMOS process means the silicon will be cheap
- The dual-core processors will run at 500-800mhz.
- Supports portable Wifi hotspot and Android 2.2 and up
But the kicker is the price. Tran says that phones made from the BCM2157 chipset will retail for under $100 and may dip as low as $75. Those devices should debut in just 3-6 months (and we might hear about them next month at CES)….
To be clear, That sub $100 price is not the cost of materials, it is the suggested retail price after the manufacturers (and carriers) have taken their profits.
via 2011 will be the year Android explodes – Google 24/7 – Fortune Tech.
My own data shows that the average selling price for the top eight phone vendors for Q3 of 2010 was $156. Smartphone-only vendors were charging $450 on average and diversified vendors selling both smart and non-smart phones were charging $144 on average.
Nokia’s ASP for its entire line-up was $88 (spread over about 84 million non-smart and 26.5 million smartphones).
What strikes me about the claim from Broadcom is that a $100 retail price for a smartphone implies an ASP of about $85 or so (assuming $15 or a very modest 18% channel mark-up).
That means that a smartphone could be built using this chip which would have nearly half the average price of all branded phones sold last quarter.
It would also be priced cheaper than the average price Nokia charged for all its phones (75% of which were non-smart phones.)
And this type of phone could be available not in three years in three months.
The chart above shows how prices could collapse.
Of course, low price is not the only condition for the widespread substitution of smart devices in vendor portfolios. But it does take away a significant objection. It no longer seems far-fetched to say that in another two years the price points for smartphones will be low enough to make them marketable in all markets. This may in fact be true next year.
I suspect that non-branded vendors will lead the way and make these devices widely available in emerging markets. The question will then be entirely up to the branded vendors whether they will follow or will they try to market dumb phones vs. smart phones at similar price points. Will buyers opt for a branded device with no ecosystem or unbranded device with the Android ecosystem?
It becomes harder to envision any reason why non-smart devices will earn positions in portfolios two years from now.
Note that I’m not suggesting that the market for high-end smartphones is threatened yet–there is still a lot of innovation that still needs to happen to shape that market into one of mobile computing (vs. mobile phoning).
Instead, what I am suggesting is that the bottom of the phone market is very vulnerable to becoming smart. This may sound like an odd sort of disruption, but it’s a very sinister threat to companies who are in the business of selling brands and not platforms.
"VisionMobile’s top 10+1 blog articles for 2010
[As 2010 draws to a close, Marketing Manager Matos Kapetanakis reveals the 10 most influential articles in the VisionMobile blog for 2010, plus best quotes and reader comments. We also showcase our very best blog article for 2010, “Is Android Evil”, discussing Google’s control points and dispersing the illusion of the platform’s much vaunted openness].
During 2010, we have seen our blog reach new heights, having quadrupled our reader base over 2009, with more than 220 thousand unique visits, 4.4 thousand Tweets and 660 likes on Facebook. Moreover, our readers joined the conversation with over 550 comments across the 49 articles published this year. Another interesting factoid is that Twitter became the no 1 referring site for our blog during the past 12 months. So, a big thank you to our readers and all of you who helped spread the word!
Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.
Also, a big thanks to all 23 of our guest authors, whose contribution to the blog was paramount to its success. Some of our most successful articles this year, including “The Android UI dilemma: Unify or Differentiate”, “The Flash vs. HTML5 endgame” or “Waking the Dragon: The Rise of Android in China” were contributed by guest authors. The guest authors whose articles made it to the top 10 are Ben Hookway, Guilhem Ensuque, Dave Neary, Hong Wu and Thucydides Sigs.
Trends
Our blog hosted articles across a vast range of topics, from virtualization to app development and from the Cloud phone to Android. However, our readers’ interest was piqued by articles on Android and everything app-related.
The Top 10+1: Best articles and quotes
Here they are; this year’s 10 best articles, plus the undisputed champion. Apart from a brief description of each article, we’ve included the best quote by the author, but also one comment from the readers. In most cases, we’ve chosen to quote those readers whose viewpoints differed from our own, providing a more neutral perspective.
Although our blog had over 20 thousand visits, a sizable chunk of these went to a single article; our clear winner for 2010, “Is Android Evil?”
Our article on Android and the debate on its openness, was read by more than 45 thousand people, tweeted almost 950 times and generated an intense debate, with over 55 comments. This article sparked a heated debate, with readers’ reactions ranging from vehement agreement to zealous flaming and even name-calling.
Is Android Evil?
by Andreas Constantinou
Inspired by Google’s motto of “don’t be evil”, Andreas examines Android’s openness as a platform and identifies Google’s control points. The main argument of this article is that Android is the most closed system in the history of open source. And no, we’re not suggesting Google’s turned to the ‘dark side’.
What we said
“Android is the best example of how a company can use open source to build up interest and community participation, while running a very tight commercial model.”
What you said
“…Android may not be fully open like Linux. But it is dramatically more open than any other major cell phone OS…” (comment by Jim Philips)
So, without further ado, here are our top 10 articles for 2010.
No 10 - The many faces of Android fragmentation
by Andreas Constantinou
(5 thousand views, 105+ tweets)
It’s common knowledge that Google and Android users alike have suffered from the platform’s version fragmentation. But did you know about the codebase and profile fragmentation? Andreas breaks down the three major fragmentation dimensions and discusses their impact on the platform’s success.
What we said
“For Google’s Android team, fragmentation is what keeps them up at night. Fragmentation reduces the addressable market of applications, increases the cost of development and could ultimately break the developer story around Android as we ‘ll see.”
What you said
“…Unless an OEM puts their hands around Android and creates their own software platform structured and controlled the way Apple controls iOS, the Android world will look exactly like the J2ME world in two years time…” (comment by Mike Grant)
No 9 – How to save Nokia (from itself)
by Thucydides Sigs
(5 thousand views, 85+ tweets)
For many years now, Nokia has been sitting comfortably in the no1 position of both the feature and smart phone markets. But times are changing and Nokia’s share is shrinking. Thucydides examines Nokia’s position and raises the issue of business culture.
Also, don’t miss our readers’ weeklong debate on Nokia’s future, in the article’s comment section.
What we said
“Nokia has known where it wanted and needed to go. But the problem has been and still is the execution. The Finnish giant just fails to move and adapt fast enough to the chaotic, rapidly evolving software and internet market.What is holding the execution back? More than anything, it’s the company’s culture”
What you said
“…The new key to market share is the couple Platform-Ecosystem, not the handset portfolio diversity, the design or the platform quality by itself (WebOs is here to demonstrate). The Nokia mobile application/developer ecosystem is suffering (on one hand is too tricky to develop on Symbian, and the OVI store is not as good and commercially mature as Android and IPhone Markets)…” (comment by Simone Cicero)
No 8 – Apps is the new Web: sowing the seeds for Web 3.0
by Andreas Constantinou
(6 thousand views, 280 tweets)
With the phenomenal success of mobile apps, the world of content is migrating from web 2.0 to apps as the new format for creating, packaging, discovering, paying and interacting with information. Andreas analyses how apps are the evolution of Web 2.0 and where this phenomenon will lead us next.
What we said
“Once web technologies are consistently adopted in 3-5 years we should see web move from today’s lowest common denominator to powering the next-generation of apps across connected devices, from toys to TVs and from web pages to apps – and the browsing (exploratory, lowest-common-denominator) experience moving to resemble an app (getting things done, immersive) experience.”
What you said
“..The web is accessible from any internet-connected device, regardless of brand of the device, of opinion the app-store owner has of you and your app, and of the device and (mostly) location of the device.
The web would never be what is is today if it was controlled by one company or government (like apps are in the apple app store)…” (comment by Yves)
No 7 – Windows Phone 7: Tipping the Scales of the Smartphone Market
by Michael Vakulenko
(6.5 thousand views, 130 tweets)
Although Symbian still has the biggest market share in the smartphone market, it’s being pressed hard by Android and iPhone. Windows Mobile had all but faded into irrelevance, but it’s back with an all-new platform. Is it enough to tip the scales and claim its piece of the pie?
What we said
“If successful, Windows Phone 7 will catalyze further shifts in the mobile industry bringing PC-style commoditization and increasing distance between operators and their subscribers. Microsoft and low-cost, PC style ‘assemblers’ will be the main winners driving smartphone price declines.”
What you said
“…This is a chicken-and-egg scenario, since the success of WP7 actually depends on being able to commoditize the market. Microsoft’s strength really lies in coming from behind and comoditizing somebody else’s innovation…” (comment by Jay)
No 6 – Waking the Dragon: The Rise of Android in China
by Hong Wu
(8 thousand views, 155+ tweets)
There’s no question that Android has a stellar rise in shipments and developer mindshare. But what about China, the country with the biggest mobile user base?
What we said
“The Android ecosystem in China is still a sleeping dragon, but is waking up day by day. There will be more ad networks, more app stores, and more payment gateways coming out in the foreseeable future before consolidation moves in.”
What you said
“…I do believe strongly that if you’re right in terms of the way Android is picking up in China, there would be no reason for them to expand out to other markets at all, even India and other developing countries…” (comment by Krshna)
No 5 – [Infographic] The Mobile Developer Journey
by Matos Kapetanakis
(9 thousand views, 260 tweets)
Although not an article, we’ve included our infographic, as it’s become a reader favorite. The “Mobile Developer Journey” infographic is based on our Developer Economics report, tracking the developer experience, from app design and platform selection to market delivery and monetization.
What you said
“Nice representation of some of the key points for mobile dev>”
Tweet by @DavidBod
“Awesome infografic on mobile platforms & development”
Tweet by @Marcovena
“If you want to see what it takes to build a mobile app”
Tweet by @MarksPhone
“Great new infographic from VisionMobile for mobile app development”
Tweet by @AppsArabia
No 4 – The MeeGo Progress Report: A+ or D-?
by Dave Neary
(9.5 thousand views, 85+ tweets)
MeeGo has been in the pipeline for quite some time now, but we’ve yet to see any devices. Dave takes a look at the project’s progress and reports on MeeGo’s chances against smartphone OS giants, like iPhone and Android.
What we said
“…to succeed as a platform, the application developer story and the user experience are vital. There is a lot of work to be done in these areas for MeeGo to gain serious traction outside of the small community of Finnish handset designers. Nokia still has a long way to go”
What you said
“…MeeGo looks like a fig leaf for failed software strategy of two hardware giants – Nokia and Intel. Moreover, it was conceived to solve yesterday problems. By the time it will reach consumers, the market will advance two phases and pose very different challenges…” (comment by Michael Vakulenko)
No 3 – The Flash vs. HTML5 endgame
by Guilhem Ensuque
(11 thousand views, 170+ tweets)
Adobe’s Flash platform is feeling the pressure, as more vendors choose HTML5 over it. But is there really a war going on? Guilhem makes an in-depth analysis into the history of each contender to the throne and looks at the pros and cons of each.
What we said
“Flash is far from dead today. There are many cases in which Flash will continue to offer a better alternative (worst case a very useful fallback) to “HTML5” technologies due to the fragmentation in new web standards browser support.”
What you said
“…I think both technologies can coexist. And more than that, they should join, mix. Why not integrate Flash into the HTML5 specification? I’ve always thought that the best way is to add a tag called ‘flash’ or ‘ria’ where there is SWF content. It would be like the canvas tag, but would also be able to resize…” (comment by Manuel Ignacio López Quintero)
No 2 – The Android UI dilemma: Unify or Differentiate?
by Ben Hookway
(12 thousand views, 230+ tweets)
Android’s fast becoming a handset manufacturer and operator/carrier favorite, largely due to its custom ROMs and customised UI. But Google is sure to pay a price, as user experience becomes more and more fragmented. What should Google do?
What we said
“The economic model of handset OEMs necessitates UI differentiation and Google is taking that away. For Google to expect Apple-like control on a fundamentally different business model is just unrealistic”
What you said
“…I think Android should remain open, let OEM customize whatever they want, as long as there is a Vanilla Home Replacement available for free in the Google Marketplace, all users should easily be able to remove the custom UI on any Gingerbread phone and “reset” it exactly to the default Android UI designs.” (comment by Charbax)
No 1 – Developer Economics 2010: The migration of developer mindshare
by Andreas Constantinou
(19 thousand views, 320+ Tweets)
This article is the first of a 4-part series, analyzing the findings of our global research report, Developer Economics 2010 (free copy here), on all aspects of mobile development. The article examines the recent migration of developer mindshare from the ‘old guard’ platforms (Java and Symbian) to the ‘new guard’ (iPhone and Android.
What we said
“In terms of developer mindshare, our research shows that Symbian and Java ME, which dominated the developer mindshare pool until 2008, have been superceded by the Android and iPhone platforms.”
What you said
“…I don’t think any more proprietary platforms will be successful. Apple has taken that mantle. I think only open platforms have any chance of competing. MeeGo, for example, is starting to get a good amount of momentum…” (comment by Francis Sepparton)
Happy Holiday Season!
There you have it, these were the top articles in the VisionMobile blog for 2010, as determined by our readers. I hope you enjoyed this collection of articles.
Is there an article you particularly enjoyed and feel should have been included? What would you like to see next?
Leave a comment and let us know. You can also follow us on Twitter (@visionmobile) or send me an email directly (matos at visionmobile.com).
Happy Holidays to all! Don’t forget to tune in on January 3, for the first article of 2011.
"
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Move over Moto, HTC teases they will have the first 4G [LTE] phone, again
HTC was the first handset maker to deliver a 4G phone, the EVO 4G. Then they were the first to offer a 4G phone for T-Mobile, the G2. Now it looks like HTC will be the first with a 4G LTE phone on Verizon, the Thunderbolt.
A new teaser has appeared on HTC’s mobile site that says “The first to 4G, again. Find out January 6th”. That just happens to be the same day that Verizon unveils a half-dozen LTE devices, so it’s pretty obvious what HTC is hinting at.
Verizon recently said that Motorola had an LTE phone coming (the dual-core Etna) and we also saw a mysterious Samsung phone with LTE, but it makes sense that HTC could be first since they have been working on their handset the longest.
We first heard about HTC’s phone in August when the Mecha codename leaked and then BGR posted the first pictures of the device in the wild. The original version of the phone was Verizon’s take on the Desire HD and it was rumored to launch on November 23rd as the Incredible HD. Then we learned that Verizon pushed the phone back to next year so that HTC could add support for 4G LTE.
Most recently, HTC began leaking pictures of the device to build some hype and today we learned the final product name could be Thunderbolt. Verizon has been testing this phone since early November, so all signs point to an early 2011 release.
There might be some crazy surprises packed inside the Thunderbolt, but most likely it will share the same components as the Desire HD and myTouch 4G. That means you should expect a second-gen 1 GHz Snapdragon processor and 768 MB of RAM. Based on other leaked pictures, we also know the device has Sense UI, a front-facing camera, kick-stand, and a micro SD slot.
If I was a betting man, I’d say that Verizon reveals the Thunderbolt on January 6th and then puts it on sale the following day. HTC is pretty confident that they will be first with a 4G LTE handset, so we expect their phone to land before Motorola’s Etna which is rumored for February-March.
Related Posts
- Peter Chou says HTC working on LTE devices for next year
- HTC Mecha could launch on Verizon as the Droid Thunderbolt
- Samsung also has a 4G LTE phone coming soon to Verizon
- HTC leaks pics of their next big Android phone, likely headed to Verizon 4G
- Verizon confirms Android devices with 4G LTE coming to CES
Rumor Mill: Nokia, Microsoft could partner on Windows Phone 7
Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) are thinking of collaborating on a range of smartphones running on Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 platform, according to the Russian blogger Eldar Murtazin.
Murtazin, who has a knack for finding out scoops about Nokia, said that executives from the handset maker initiated talks with Microsoft in the past month. The two companies have been considering 'an entire line' of phones that would be branded by Nokia, sold through Nokia's distribution channels and have Nokia 'characteristics.'
A Nokia spokesman declined to comment.
Speculation about a partnership between Nokia and Microsoft has increased since Stephen Elop took over as CEO of Nokia in September. Elop previously ran Microsoft's $19 billion business division and was responsible for the company's Office product suite. Nokia has insisted for months that Symbian will remain its smartphone platform of choice while the forthcoming MeeGo operating system will be used for high-end devices. The company has dismissed calls to run devices using Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android platform.
Nokia and Microsoft earlier this year unveiled a new piece of software, called Communicator Mobile, that shows smartphone users whether co-workers are available and allows them to communicate via email, text message, instant message or voice. The app is available for download in Nokia's Ovi store and was the fruit of a collaboration Nokia and Microsoft announced in 2009.
While there are definite connections between Nokia and Microsoft, some analysts think a deal on Windows Phone devices remains far off. 'Nokia has always been trying to stay out of the licensing model because it's too expensive,' technology consultant Julien Fourgeaud told Forbes. 'They produce huge volumes of phones, so licensing would increase the cost per unit.'
For more:
- see this Forbes article
Relatd Articles:
Nokia to take control of Symbian platform development
Nokia taps Qt as its sole app development framework
Nokia, Microsoft unveil enterprise 'Communicator' software
A cloudy forecast for Nokia-Microsoft alliance
What does Microsoft/Nokia deal mean for Windows Mobile?
Microsoft, Nokia expected to bring Office to Nokia devices
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
CHART OF THE DAY: Google's Login Is More Popular Than Facebook Connect (GOOG)
Surprise! Google login is used by more people than Facebook Connect, according to data from Janrain Engage, a site that puts login widgets on websites.
Janrain based its data on logins across 300,000 different websites.
When we saw this chart we almost didn't believe it. After all, Facebook Connect gets most of the hype and attention. Further, companies are using Facebook Connect as a cornerstone of their business, something that must scare Google.
The good news here for Google is that it has traction with people logging into different sites. If it can settle its internal battles over social, it could build a universal login product that rivals Facebook, and produces similarly valuable information.
Follow the Chart Of The Day on Twitter: @chartoftheday
"[Updated] RIM’s sales down 15% in the US, up 112% outside the US
First, a round-up of the quarter’s numbers:
- 14.2 million devices shipped, sell-through: 12.3 million
- expect to ship 14.5 to 15 million units in the next quarter
- ASP of approximately $315
- US, UK and Canada are 56% of sales
- US represented 34% of the total revenue
- Last year US represented 57% of revenue
- BlackBerry Torch launched in over 75 new markets, Torch launched with the $99 pricing from AT&T
- BlackBerry Curve 3G launched with 118 carriers in 48 countries
- China Mobile introduced BIS for small-to-medium sized businesses. The service starts at $14 per month
- App World applications grew 60%
- More than 16,000 applications available
- 2 million downloads daily
- 1,000 vendors registered for PlayBook apps
- Revenue: $5.5 billion
- Net subscriber additions: 5.1 million
- Top three customers: 12%, 9%, and 9% of revenue
- The same quarter a year ago: 25%, 13% and 10% of revenue
- Service revenue in Q3: $835 million
- Software revenue: $78 million
- Gross margin in the quarter was 43.6%
- Cash: $2.5 billion
For comparison, here are a select few vendors’ smartphone reported shipments. RIM is the first to report and we’ll be hearing the the rest by the end of January.
The number most RIM “bears” focus on is the new subscriber additions. At 5.1 million out of 14.2 million units sold implying that the new subscribers added per unit sold is 0.34, a new low.
The bulls will argue that the gross margin is healthy and slightly higher than anticipated.
My observation is that the company is finding growth outside its traditional markets. Given the figures above, the US went from $1.65b in revenue to $1.87b; a mere 13% growth while the company experienced 89% overall growth in revenues.
The following chart illustrates the situation:
Of the total increase in sales ($1.6 billion), the US contributed -15% while the rest of the world accounted for 112%.
This can be seen as positive news since RIM has been weak internationally for many years and they really need to penetrate world markets. However, a -15% growth in the US is implies significant share loss in a rapidly growing and traditional stronghold.
"Thursday, December 16, 2010
LG Optimus 2X is the first dual-core smartphone
Young and Mobile: A Global View of Cellphones and Youth
Nielsen’s new whitepaper on Mobile Youth Around the World reveals that most young people with mobile phones chose their own device. In fact, across all the countries surveyed, only 16 percent of young people reported that their parents selected their mobile phone. Price was the most common consideration among youth in selecting a mobile phone, though that is true among other age groups, too. Youth aged 15 to 24 in all countries surveyed put price as the first purchase driver, with the exception of Russian youth, 21 percent of whom placed design/style first. (Some grown-ups care about design, too. Around 14 percent of Brazilian adults say design/style is the most important consideration, compared to seven percent of U.S. adults.)
Out of all the countries examined, Italy leads in smartphone penetration with 47 percent of young people ages 15-24 owning a smartphone, compared to 31 percent of adults over 25. Smartphone penetration among European youth averages 28 percent in the countries surveyed, while penetration among older adults in Europe is 27 percent. Twenty-eight percent of U.S. mobile subscribers have smartphones. Youth in the United States exceed the population average smartphone penetration by 5 percent.
All countries tend to skew male in smartphone adoption with one notable exception, the US, where 55 percent of smartphone users age 15-24 are female. In the overall U.S. smartphone population 55 percent were male.
- For more information on global youth cellphone trends and usage, download Mobile Youth Around the World.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
HTC to target US with first LTE smartphones
CHART OF THE DAY: Here's The REAL Reason That Google Is Making Chrome OS (GOOG, MSFT)
Why is Google making Chrome OS, an operating system for PCs?
In part, perhaps, to boost Google search queries or Google web apps or Google-something-else. In part, perhaps, as a novel pet project -- because Google's founders think it's cool to do a little bit of everything. In part, perhaps, to give people a more modern PC experience for less money.
But the REAL reason is that it's a big chance to disrupt Google's archrival Microsoft, and to start to destroy its core business, Windows.
Despite all the things that Microsoft is involved in -- servers, Office, gaming, MSN, Xbox, Zune, phones -- Windows is still by far its biggest profit driver. During the last eight quarters, Microsoft's Windows division represented 51% of the company's operating income, including as much as 63% in an individual quarter.
By attacking Microsoft's core business with Chrome OS, Google is taking a small risk that could have a major payoff. Because the weaker Windows is, the weaker Microsoft is, and the less it can afford to try to attack Google. (Similarly, this is why Microsoft continues to dump money into Bing; to try to destroy Google's core search business.)
Now the question is whether Chrome OS will last, or whether it's a huge waste of time -- and that Google's attack on Windows would be stronger via a unified push behind Android.
Follow the Chart Of The Day on Twitter: @chartoftheday
"